The Buffalo Bills Have Missed Their Super Bowl Window

HOUSTON, TX- The Buffalo Bills traded star receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans on Wednesday morning for a 2025 second round pick. The Texans have now catapulted themselves to the upper tier of AFC contenders and the Bills are left without a dynamic number one receiver.

However, I believe that there is a bigger issue at hand: this trade signals that the Bills have officially missed their Super Bowl window. 2023 was probably the franchise’s best year at winning the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era, and they blew it.

2023 Was Supposed To Be The Bills’ Year

The Bills caught a lot of breaks last year. In their own division, Aaron Rodgers got hurt and the Patriots hit rock bottom. Meanwhile, Miami collapsed at the end of the year after a torrid start and couldn't beat teams above .500 except for the Cowboys.

It gets better when you look around the rest of the AFC. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence both got hurt, Justin Herbert had a coach with the IQ of a middle schooler, C.J. Stroud was a rookie, and Patrick Mahomes had no legitimate number one receiver. Outside of the Baltimore Ravens, the Bills had no serious obstacles standing in their way, and it showed when the team somehow managed to win the AFC East in Week 18 despite bumbling around for most of the season and nearly missing the playoffs entirely.

However, the Bills once again Billed. They have become the NFL’s Washington Capitals before the Caps won a Stanley Cup. The Capitals and Bills both had a star player who would guide the team to a great regular season, and then usually get eliminated in the playoffs by that one team who always had their number: the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Big Issue With The Bills

I've always believed that dominant number one receivers are overvalued because studies show that they are not essential to Super Bowl wins, but the Bills have a serious wide receiver problem on their hands.

After the Diggs trade, their number one receiver is Curtis Samuel followed by the likes of Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins. While Samuel and Shakir are big play receivers, they are not number ones and are probably low end number two receivers at best. While last year’s stats show that Diggs was a declining player, he still provided the offense with a proven top receiver. Their best aerial weapon right now might be second year tight end Dalton Kincaid who is still unproven at this point in his career.

There is precedence for the Bills’ current situation- the 2022 Green Bay Packers. After the team moved off Davante Adams, their best receivers were rookies, an aging Sammy Watkins, and Allen Lazard, who is a number three at best. That team, despite having an albeit declining Aaron Rodgers, went 8-9 and missed the playoffs despite a late season surge.

Number one receivers are no doubt overvalued to a degree, but you can't win Super Bowls with just number three receivers. The Chiefs won back to back Super Bowls without Tyreek Hill, but they had Travis Kelce and quality number two receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Rashee Rice.

The AFC Will Be A Gauntlet In 2024

Last year, one of my hot takes was that the Bills would miss the playoffs, in part due to a loaded AFC. While that turned out to be false, I do believe that could be true in 2024.

The AFC is going to be really good next year. Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence will all be healthy again. The Chiefs are the back to back champions who are getting better and have a legitimate shot to three-peat. Justin Herbert now has a legitimate coach in Jim Harbaugh, and the Texans, at least on paper, are now one of the conference’s most loaded teams and have the key ingredients to win a Super Bowl. While I do anticipate a small regression in Baltimore coming, they are still a viable AFC contender.

That is not to mention the Colts, who I believe can be the surprise team in the NFL next season if Anthony Richardson can stay upright. They came within a play of winning the AFC South last year with Gardner Minshew at QB. Meanwhile, the always-viable Steelers just upgraded at QB after making the playoffs with Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett last year.

It is entirely possible that the AFC next year has up to nine or ten teams that are 9-8 or better, and there are only seven playoff spots. I believe that the Bills will win the AFC East because of its current state, but the possibility of them missing the playoffs can't be ruled out. Studies have shown that half the teams who make the playoffs miss them the following season, and the Bills could be among these teams. We usually have six to seven new playoff teams each year, and some of the teams who miss them are surprises, such as the Bengals and Jaguars in 2023, albeit both were due to QB injuries.

In all the chaos, one thing is certain, and that is that the Buffalo Bills have officially missed their Super Bowl window. With a defensive coach, no number one or two receivers, and a middle of the pack offensive line, I can’t see the Bills as serious contenders in 2024. Last season was their chance, and they went full Bills again. They got eliminated in the second round to what do you know, THE FREAKING CHIEFS!

Serafino Diaz is a writer at Chaotically Intolerant, Phoenix's finest Vikings, Bucks, and Cubs fan, traveling everywhere I can.