Skyrocketing Value of Japanese Pitching

November of 2023 kicked off the most intriguing free agency class possibly in MLB history. Our generation’s Babe Ruth along with a deep free agent class of pitchers with just about half of the league looking to upgrade the top end of their starting rotation. With that class being dominated by the unicorn bidding war of newly-acquired Dodger Shohei Ohtani, attention is finally being diverted to this group of pitchers. The most thought-provoking arms in this group are undoubtedly the Japanese arms that have been posted from the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB). Let’s get to know this new wave of Japanese talent we’re going to see in MLB in 2024.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The star power of this Japanese class is obviously the highly coveted right handed arm of 25-year old Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Orix Buffaloes. If you’re an MLB fan and you’ve scrolled Twitter/X or looked at any MLB news, you’ve heard about this guy in some capacity. In each of the last 3 seasons he has taken home damn near every accolade you possibly can, including a clean sweep of the MVP, Sawamura (Cy Young), Gold Gloves, the Triple Crown, and even threw in an NPB championship and 2 no-hitters just to stay in shape. The guy is a stud and projects to be a stud moving forward into the MLB, but what projects him to make almost $200 million more than Masahiro Tanaka’s record breaking contract? Tanaka and Yamamoto have been compared in terms of mechanics and pitch mix, but almost everything about Yamamoto’s pitches are a tick above Tanaka. We got a taste of Yamamoto on a national stage when he started the WBC semi-final against Mexico. He featured a fastball in the mid 90’s (up to 99), a low 90’s cutter, and a ridiculous 88-90 mph splitter that drops 20 inches off of his fastball, a splitter extremely similar to the aforementioned Shohei Ohtani. Yamamoto also has a nasty curveball that in terms of the Stuff+ metric, has been compared to elite curveballs like Seth Lugo and Max Fried, who can consistently run their curveballs up around 3000 rpm. The best part about this guy though, HE. THROWS. STRIKES. I must add at a much better clip than the likes of Darvish and Tanaka. A 5.7% walk rate out in Japan with the electric stuff that he has is going to be extremely valuable with even more room to grow and develop as a 25-year-old. Not to mention he’s striking out hitters at above a 26% clip in a league where strikeouts are far less frequent than the MLB. The more you dig into the stats and accolades on this guy, the more you want him on your favorite team. Front offices are obviously foaming at the mouth for this guy due to a widespread need for star pitching talent and the number of GM’s getting in line for this carousel of pitchers is only going to drive his value higher and higher. He’s already been posted by the Buffaloes and teams are free to negotiate with the team and Yamamoto. The Red Sox have been linked as a “finalist” for him along with the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, and Blue Jays. I desperately need John Henry to pony up and pay this guy and get him in Boston. There is no such thing as overpaying for your ace of the future. Get it done Craig.

Shōta Imanaga

The guy I’ve been saying is the dark horse of this class is the other big Japanese starter on the market, Shōta Imanaga of the DeNA Baystars. He also has already been posted by the team and is expected to sign within the 45 day window. Some of us remember him as the starter in the WBC final against the US and he actually threw a solid 2 innings outside of the solo moon bomb he gave up to the red-hot Trea Turner. Imanaga is the ideal “crafty lefty” you’d like to mix into the middle of your rotation. A low-to-mid 90’s fastball with an elite changeup is his bread and butter. This guy has the ability to make some of the most disciplined hitters on the planet look silly. He also put up a 2.66 ERA in 24 starts over in Japan this past season headlined by a 7 inning 15 K 0 BB performance in July

Along with his great season he also had a 3.8% walk rate. That’s Greg Maddux-type control. He’s consistently kept his ERA in the 2’s and has stayed healthy throughout his 8 years in the NPB. Expect him to draw a lot of interest and even though he is 30, don’t be surprised if he gets a longer-term contract that hovers close to 9 figures. Teams need reliable pitching and Imanaga has the potential to be as reliable an arm as it gets. He’s an arm a team like the Red Sox should go get as a secondary move to the much-needed ace.

Yuki Matsui

The final notable arm from Japan will be 28-year-old closer Yuki Matsui of the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Matsui also appeared in the WBC with Samurai Japan but just for a single scoreless inning against Korea. Nonetheless, the free agent reliever should draw plenty of interest for the back end of a contending team’s bullpen. He does not need to go through the same posting process as Yamamoto and will not have the posting fee attached to his contract. Teams are just free to sign him outright at any point this offseason. Matsui is on the smaller side, 5’8 and 167 pounds but he can still run it up to 96 on the gun with a wipeout upper 80’s splitter. He put up a 2.40 ERA in 501 games with 236 saves in his 10 years in the NPB. With Hader being the only other big lefty reliever on the market, Matsui could work himself into a good contract with a contender.

Caleb Williams is a former D1 Pitcher, self professed baseball nerd and an obnoxious Boston sports fan and can be found on Chaotically Intolerant