J.J. McCarthy Is Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0
How Has J.J. McCarthy's Stock Risen So High, So Quickly?
SPORTS
Serafino Diaz
4/24/20244 min read


DETROIT,MI- Former Michigan quarterback and current NFL Draft prospect J.J. McCarthy’s meteoric rise from projected late round selection to potential top-five pick has made him one of this draft’s more polarizing players. On one hand, NFL scouts love McCarthy's intangibles and potential, especially after a good Pro Day. On the other hand, fans see him as a product of a great Michigan team that sent an NFL-record 18 players to the combine.
McCarthy has drawn comparisons to Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith, but I'm going to throw out a new comparison: former 49ers starter Jimmy Garoppolo. When looking at their overall careers, the comparison is so freaky that McCarthy will probably become Garoppolo 2.0 minus the injuries.


Comparison No. 1: Both were surrounded by great rosters and coaches
While with the Niners, Jimmy Garoppolo benefitted from having Kyle Shanahan as a coach and a roster that consistently fielded top-10 offenses and defenses. McCarthy, similarly, has benefited from having Jim Harbaugh as a coach and an all-star Michigan roster that went to three consecutive CFP tournaments from 2021-23, the last of which coming despite Harbaugh serving two three-game suspensions during the season.
Both also benefited from their coach’s schemes and coaching style. Shanahan and Harbaugh are both old school coaches who value smashmouth football, meaning there is a higher emphasis on offensive line and running back play. The biggest win of Garoppolo’s 49ers tenure was the 2019 NFC Championship Game vs. the Packers, a game where he attempted a mere seven passes as the run game recorded 285 yards rushing.
In Michigan’s National Championship win, McCarthy threw the ball 15 times for 140 yards while Michigan’s run game compiled 303 rushing yards.


Comparison No. 2: Doubts around them being The Guy
Due to his surrounding situation, there were real questions throughout his 49ers tenure about whether or not Garoppolo was the long-term answer. He would have a good game here and there that would silence the doubters for a while, but most people would attribute his success to Shanahan and the roster around him.
I should note that Garoppolo was a big part of the Niners losing Super Bowl LIV and the 2021 NFC Championship Game. In both cases, his underperformance led to the Niners blowing double-digit fourth quarter leads and Garoppolo himself topped off both losses with game-ending interceptions. Similarly, McCarthy's two pick-sixes played a vital role in Michigan's 51-45 loss to TCU in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl, part of the CFP Semifinal.
The concerns about McCarthy being a franchise guy are real. His highest single-season passing yards total is 2,991, which was accomplished this year. In addition, his career high in touchdown passes is only 22, which he accomplished both this year and last. These numbers are unusually low for an elite prospect, and most QBs with these career high numbers would be Day 2 picks, but McCarthy’s winning pedigree has elevated his stock.


Comparison No. 3: High winning percentage
Although this was attributed to great coaching and surrounding rosters, both Garoppolo and McCarthy won a lot of games during the peak of their powers.
Garoppolo has a career record of 43-20, including a 38-17 record as the Niners starter. For all of his flaws, he did elevate Shanahan’s winning percentage. Without Garoppolo, Shanahan has a 26-34 record, and a majority of his wins are with Brock Purdy, a QB who has a similar skillset to Garoppolo.
At Michigan, McCarthy was 27-1 as a starter and was a key component of Jim Harbaugh’s long awaited breakthrough at Michigan. Without McCarthy, Harbaugh has a career record of 59-24.
Both Garoppolo and McCarthy helped their coaches beat a rival opponent. Without Garoppolo, Shanahan is 1-4 against the rival Los Angeles Rams. Without McCarthy, Harbaugh is 1-5 against Ohio State.


Final Thought: McCarthy only works in one place
I'm skeptical about how successful J.J. McCarthy will be in the NFL, and it's why I believe he will only work if he gets drafted by the Minnesota Vikings.
McCarthy going to the Vikings would be like him going to Michigan: he'd have a great offensive-minded coach, premier offensive weapons, and a top offensive line. Plus, he'd get to sit for a year behind Sam Darnold and learn the position.
In a weaker NFC that lacks special QBs outside of Matthew Stafford, McCarthy would elevate Minnesota greatly. As long as he's on his rookie contract, the Vikings could make a few deep playoff runs and maybe reach the NFC Championship once or twice if all of the stars aligned.
If McCarthy gets drafted by a team like the Commanders, Giants, or Patriots, he will be a bust. While most QB success is dependent on where the player lands, this cannot be emphasized enough with McCarthy, who will only have success in the right situation with the right pieces around him.
Serafino Diaz is a writer at Chaotically Intolerant, Phoenix's finest Vikings, Bucks, and Cubs fan, traveling everywhere I can.