Five Non-Obvious Players With The Highest Impact On Sunday

LAS VEGAS, NV- I’m not going to regurgitate how the Mahomes–Kelce connection is going to be a substantial factor in this year’s Super Bowl. Nor am I going to talk about how Brock Purdy must play well and prove himself as elite. Proving all the doubters yapping about him being a game-manger quarterback (what’s wrong with that?) stupidly wrong. We get it. These tired-ass takes have been beaten into our heads for the past week. It’s important.

What I will get into are the overlooked chess pieces that have high-impact potential this Sunday. We’ve seen many Super Bowls where a hero rises and makes a monumental game defining play. Leaving us saying, who the hell is that guy? Those of the likes of James Harrison and Stephon Gilmore. The Amani Toomers and the, dare I say, the Nick Foles.

The game is played with eleven on the field. Here are five that we may be overlooking for Super Bowl LVIII, or fifty-eight for you non-romans.

Kansas City Receivers Not Named Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice

Okay, this isn’t a player per se, but whatever, it’s important. The drop-off of production outside of Kelce and Rice is staggering. The pair have combined to inhale 41% of the team's receptions, standing out as Mahomes’ top targets. They have a combined 1,922 receiving yards which makes up 46% of the team’s total. If I know this, there’s no doubt that San Francisco Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks knows this and will act upon this knowledge. He’s going to make Mahomes look to his third and fourth options.

Isaiah Pacheco is the next man up in terms of receptions. When Kelce was sidelined this season, we noticed an increase in receiving production from Pacheco. However, if the Chiefs find themselves playing from behind, they’ll need to fire it downfield. Justin Watson is the receiver who has the most yards after Kelce and Rice with 460 yards on the season. This being his third Super Bowl, the guy has been there before and is less likely to be stunned by the bright lights.

Kadarious Toney needs to play like his life depends on it, because it likely does. He’s dropped balls all season and been a distraction as of late, throwing shade at the team on Instagram over his injury status. There are plenty of Chiefs fans who have written him off and want him out. Toney has a big chance to totally redeem himself by having a big day on Sunday. Let's not forget that he added a key fourth quarter touchdown in last year’s big game, so there’s hope for the all but exiled wide-receiver yet.

Noah Gray is another player who could contribute to the pass game. Gray's been the target of at least one pass in every game he's played this season. The polarizing talent of Travis Kelce often outshines his talent and athleticism, but the kid can make plays.

L’Jarius Sneed

The Chiefs secondary needs to shut down the pass game as much as possible to win. Sneed will have his work cut out for him, lining up across from superstar and freak athlete Deebo Samuel. This battle between these two elites may be the most fun to watch this Super Bowl and has the highest 1v1 impact. Sure, Aiyuk is an absolute talent, but Deebo is a game wrecker. He can put six on the board in the blink of an eye or botch of a tackle.

When the Chiefs and 49ers met last year, Sneed got the best of Deebo, limiting him to five receptions and 42 yards. A very modest day for the electric offensive weapon. If he’s able to do the same during their upcoming matchup, the needle sways significantly towards Kansas City.

As if worrying about McCafrey on the ground wasn’t enough, Deebo Samuel is also a concern for KC. He’s added five touchdowns on the ground this year so Sneed must follow him around the field like a lost puppy. He has to be on him like shit on velcro. There’ll no doubt be plenty of pre-snap movement, setting Deebo in motion to confuse the defense and get them out of position. Coach Shanahan knows what he’s doing on offense. Ya know, unless he’s up 27-3 (see SB LI).

Richie James

The Chiefs are two and a half point underdogs. Many people consider the San Francisco offense to be the superior, much more explosive offense. How can the Chiefs even the playing field without having Patrick Mahomes even step foot on the field? Special teams, that’s how.

The benefit of excellent field position can absolutely make or break an offense and thus a game. It can turn the tides and shift momentum in a single electrifying play, sending a jolt of energy into a team. Don’t believe me? Google Devin Hester Super Bowl and report back. There’s an enormous opportunity for Kansas City’s return man, Richie James, to be a major impact player in this Super Bowl. He’s Rick James, Bitch.

To quantify this, let's look at a metric called EPA. Expected Points Added (EPA) is a metric that quantifies how many points a team adds to their expected point total on any given play. It measures how well a team performs compared to their expectation on a play-by-play basis. One major factor in EPA is starting field position.

When considering starting at the 35-yard line instead of the 15-yard line in football, the expected point value changes. An expected points framework allows us to find the expected value of a possession starting from a specific yard line. For example, if a team starts on their own 15 yard line, the odds are essentially equal on which team will score next, an EPA of zero. Start on your own 30 yard line, the EPA swings to +1 for the team with possession. Plus two expected total points if a team starts at mid-field. Field position matters and will play a large role for both teams.

Javon Hargrave

Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are staples on the 49ers' defense and are likely to make big plays on Sunday. What the Niners need more than big hits and great tackles from these two is production from their other ancillary players on defense, like Javon Hargrave.

The fact is both quarterbacks aren’t that all impacted by defensive pressure. Purdy boasts the top passer rating of all QBs this season while under pressure with a rating of 113. We’ve all witnessed Mahomes under pressure and he’s cooler than the underside of a penguin’s ballsack. The fact remains, though, that pressure increases the likelihood of mistakes. In a game where every down counts, they’re both going to be looking to sling it every chance they get. Live to play another down more or less goes out the window when the next down could be the life or death of your season and any hopes of hoisting the Lombardi.

All of Purdy and Mahomes interceptions have come when feeling pressure. With Nick Bosa expected to be double-teamed all game as the 49ers' top pass rusher, it will be crucial for someone else to step up, get to the QB, and meet the elusive Pacheco in the backfield. That man is Javon Hargrave.

Beyond the pass game, the Chiefs have to get a body on Isaiah Pacheco as soon as he gets the ball. Once he gets a head of steam, that little son of a bitch is going to be digging into that Vegas turf like he’s trying to kick the world off its axis. He runs like he bites people.

Once he’s hit, he has less of a bite. Pacheco averages less than three yards after contact per attempt, which ranks 37th among running backs and is below league average. See man. Hit man. Stop man. That should be the 49ers strategy against the elusive Pacheco. The defensive side accomplishes this through a full-on team effort. They need to get men to the ball.

Jake Moody

Jesus, enough with the special teams already, right? Wrong. In a game that’s destined to be a close one, special teams make a considerable difference. Unless you’re Dan Campbell, field goals matter. Jake Moody must be automatic in this game and rise above his overall mediocre post-season kicking performances. He’s missed a couple key kicks this regular season, costing the Niners two wins.

In the playoffs, Jake Moody is an unremarkable 3-5 on field goal attempts. Even more significant, he’s a shoddy 1-3 on attempts between 40-49 yards. The average length of an NFL field goal is between thirty and fifty yards, right in Moody’s post-season blind spot. Kickers can be the GOAT or the goat in post-season play. We’ve witnessed soul-crushing misses and hall of fame solidifying game winners. It’ll be interesting to see if Moody can turn it around in the Super Bowl.

Dan, a bona fide sports and data geek, hails from the wilds of Western Pennsylvania with an undying passion for the Stillers, Pens, and Buccos. Dan has embarked on an exciting sports writing journey, ready to subject the world to his unique blend of enthusiasm, questionable insights, and yinzer homerism. Find him and his laptop in the corner of a Starbucks near you.